Development prospects of the toy industry
Release Date:
2025-10-21
The development prospects of the toy industry are broad. Here is a brief introduction: Significant growth in market size: The Chinese toy industry is expected to exhibit structural growth between 2025 and 2030. By 2024, the total retail sales of toys (excluding trendy toys) in the domestic market will reach 97.85 billion yuan, and the total retail sales of trendy and collectible toys will reach 46.57 billion yuan. It is expected that the overall scale will exceed 500 billion yuan by 2030.
The development prospects of the toy industry are broad. Here is a brief introduction:
Significant growth in market size: The Chinese toy industry is expected to exhibit structural growth between 2025 and 2030. By 2024, the total retail sales of toys (excluding trendy toys) in the domestic market will reach 97.85 billion yuan, and the total retail sales of trendy and collectible toys will reach 46.57 billion yuan. It is expected that the overall scale will exceed 500 billion yuan by 2030.
Diversified development in segmented fields: Smart toys, as the core growth engine, are expected to have a penetration rate of 29% by 2025, corresponding to a market size of 85 billion yuan, and will exceed the 200 billion yuan mark by 2030. The trendy toy market has built a unique ecosystem of IP operation and limited marketing, with an estimated scale of 72 billion yuan by 2025. Under the catalysis of the double reduction policy, educational toys have formed a demand market, and by 2025, the scale of STEAM educational toys will reach 48 billion yuan.
The consumer group continues to expand: the proportion of adult toy consumption has jumped from 18% in 2020 to 37% in 2024. Driven by Kidult culture, the compound annual growth rate of collectible trendy toys has reached 23.9%, and the contribution rate of the adult market is expected to exceed 50% by 2030.
Technological innovation drives upgrading: In the future, the toy industry will pay more attention to product innovation and integration, combining IoT and artificial intelligence technologies to create more intelligent products that can deeply interact with users, such as AI multimodal interactive toys, AR/VR technology toys, etc.
Continuous optimization of sales channels: The proportion of live streaming e-commerce channels has risen from 18% in 2022 to 32% predicted by 2025, and the efficiency of private domain traffic operation has increased by 40%. At the same time, offline experience stores have increased brand stickiness through immersive scenes, and the trend of online and offline integration is obvious.
The export market has enormous potential: under the RCEP framework, the import value of ASEAN countries will increase by 19.1% annually, and the toy export value will reach 39.87 billion US dollars in 2024. It is expected that the proportion of cross-border e-commerce channels will reach 40% by 2030, and the export unit price of smart toys will be 3-5 times higher than traditional products.
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